3 Housing Market Worries Atlanta Buyers Can Stop Stressing About
There's a lot of uncertainty out there right now, and the headlines aren't helping. If you've been thinking about buying a home in Atlanta, all that noise can make you second-guess your decision before you even get started.
A recent CNBC study asked homebuyers what's keeping them up at night. Three things kept coming up:
Mortgage rates
The number of homes for sale
Home prices
Here's the good news: a lot of what's floating around online is built on misconceptions, not facts. So let's clear it up.
Misconception #1: "I'll Just Wait. Mortgage Rates Are About to Crash."
You've probably seen the posts. Wait it out, the rates will drop, and you'll come out ahead.
But that's not what the forecasts actually say. Yes, rates have eased a bit in recent weeks, but the experts don't see a major drop on the horizon. The most likely scenario? Rates settle into the low 6% range for the rest of the year — not far from where they sit today (see graph below):
Of course, the economy and inflation will steer where things go from here. But based on what we know now, betting on a big drop in rates probably isn't the strategy you want. As U.S. News put it:
"Mortgage rates aren't expected to change much over the next several quarters..."
And here's the other thing: even at today's rates, buying is more affordable than it was a year ago. So even if rates barely move, you're already in better shape than you were.
Misconception #2: "There Are Way Too Many Homes on the Market Right Now."
You've heard inventory is up — and nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that's not a problem. It's actually one of the reasons Atlanta buyers have a little more breathing room right now.
The issue is that the headlines are making a good thing sound scary. They're talking about how this is the most inventory we've seen since 2019, or how many homes builders are putting up. And that makes it sound like the market is flooded.
It's not.
Data from Realtor.com shows that even though inventory is up year-over-year, it's still nearly 14% below where it was during the last normal housing market (2017–2019):
And here in Atlanta, we're seeing the same story play out. There's more to choose from than there was a year ago, but we're nowhere near the kind of oversupply that would trigger a 2008-style crash. Only 9 states nationwide have more inventory today than they did pre-pandemic.
Misconception #3: "Home Prices Are About to Crash."
This one's everywhere right now. Some metros are seeing slight price declines, and influencers are running with that story like the sky is falling.
But the data tells a different story.
Most areas are still seeing prices rise, not fall. Here's why:
A lot of homeowners aren't selling because they don't want to give up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years back. That keeps inventory from ballooning.
With inventory still below pre-pandemic levels, there simply aren't enough homes on the market to cause a true price crash.
Even in markets with more inventory, some sellers are pulling their homes off the market rather than slashing prices.
And here's the kicker for us in Atlanta: even where prices have dipped slightly, those small declines aren't anywhere close to wiping out the gains homeowners have built. Atlanta home values are up 32.6% since 2021 — and the recent year-over-year dip is just 2.7% (see graph below):
That's not a crash. That's the market settling down after a record-breaking run.
Bottom Line
The internet is going to keep making this market sound scarier than it is. If you want a real, data-driven picture of what's actually happening in Atlanta, talk to someone who lives and breathes this market every day.
That's what we do at the Justin Landis Group. Let's connect and cut through the noise together.